IT is rather puzzling that Mr Godwin Emefiele is still keeping his job as the governor of Nigeria’s Central Bank, after the bank’s cash swap experiment has continued to inflict on Nigerians the level of pain never witnessed since the civil war. We are not unmindful of the fact that there may be other intervening variables working against an otherwise harmless currency redesign policy, but Emefiele’s body language, even in the face of thoughtful interventions, is beginning to suggest that the intention of the project is not as altruistic as was presented.
While there is a near unanimity among economic experts about the necessity of the currency redesign policy, there have been debates as to the timing of the exercise. Some claim that the timing was fit for purpose, given the targeted nature of the policy. Apart from mopping up unbanked cash into treasury reckoning, the Central Bank had cited the 2023 general elections as one of its targets, to presumably curb the use of excessive cash to undermine the democratic process. Others insist that as good as the policy probably is, the timing was certainly wrong-headed, given the punishing experience of the last three months.
It became obvious early into the exercise that the apex bank did not think through the full ramifications of the policy before embarking on the implementation. While retrieving the old notes from circulation the new ones were not offered in reasonably sufficient quantity. The cash scarcity triggered a number of unpleasant situations and the masses became the primary victims instead of the targeted politicians.
The consequent gaps and failures paved the way for Nigerians to characteristically begin to behave in a manner that they are known for. At that point, the apex bank was expected to do something to remedy the situation, but nothing visible was done even with the intervention of the Supreme Court. The Central Bank literally disobeyed the apex court twice and embarked on a selective execution of the judgements.
Unfortunately the Central Bank has refused to take responsibility for the mess that the lack of proper execution of the exercise has created; rather it tries at every intersection to push the blame on to cash deposit banks (CDBs) which are now bearing the brunt of agitated customers. It is becoming clearer by the day that the objective of the apex bank was decidedly political and the execution has also been subjected to a mindless politicking.
In driving its cashless policy project, the apex bank seemingly did not carry out due diligence on the capacity of the CDBs to handle digital transfers. Recently, the National Communications Commission (NCC) absolved telecommunications service providers of blame about the hardship experienced in money transfer transactions, a position which places the blame squarely on the internal digital technology efficiency of the CDBs. Customers now struggle for days to make transfers, as cash has become as rare as gold.
Worse still, customer’s funds are trapped during transfer attempts and reversals are hardly made where multiple deductions occur. The consequences of the cashless society that the Central Bank wants to create for Nigeria is failing because the electronic payment system does not have the capacity to handle the volume of traffic of transitions unleashed on the Nigerian system. The people now suffer the lack of cash for petty purchases and loss of money during transfer processes.
Apart from the systemic failure that has become apparent in the entire saga, which goes beyond the Central Bank’s seeming insensitivity, the development has exposed the moral deficit that exists within our social fabric in Nigeria: the moral compass of bank managers, the tellers in the bank, the POS retailers who now charge outrageous commissions and the fuel station attendants who have become lords, etc., exposing the penchant of the average Nigerian to exploit situations whenever there is a gap or policy failure.
While all attention now seems to be on the lack of cash within the system, the economy suffers at all levels. Banking is not just about cash, and very serious business transactions are suffering. It is like the banking system in Nigeria has collapsed. Banks hardly respond to emails, pick phone calls, reply internet communication of any sort, and would not diligently attend to transactions across the counter. The cost is huge on the economy and the result would begin to show on economic growth fundamentals in the coming months.
The tragedy is that there is a level expectation that has not been met and continues not to be met. It is not just that the process has failed, the suffering persists. It is a genuine expectation that the situation would have been arrested when it started degenerating but there was, and still is, no genuine attempt at intervention on the side of the Central Bank. The Central Bank Governor is supposed to be exceptional, to lead on monetary policy issues. If the monetary policy fails the chunk of the blame should go to the person who has been entrusted with the responsibility of executing the monetary policy. Someone must take responsibility and do the needful.
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