I want to pay my debt before we get into the intervention. The title of this article takes its life from Chimamanda’s quip on the danger of the single story. The danger of the single story is about jumping to conclusion from just a fraction of the facts, of judging from a mere peek at the picture. The fuller the story the more accurate one’s judgement is likely to be. That is the kernel of the danger of the single story.
We pray the danger of the single story give us the inspiration and focus. The harm of Peter Obi’s promised single-term presidency is hidden in plain sight. The way to peel it scale by scale like the onion bulb to help people see its likely foul fallout is to look at it within the context of the polity. Nigeria is a country of regions and ethnicities. These features have been given recognition in the allocation of consequential political offices by way of a national consensus since 1999. The consensus reflects the constitutional order that insists on equity in job recruitment to prevent concentration and imbalance, and to implant a sense of inclusion among all regions and ethnic groups.
The political consensus has seen the presidency and other key positions rotate between the north and south. In the north the Hausa/Fulani ethnic bloc has produced the president for the Federal Republic. In the south where there are two major ethnic blocs, namely the Yoruba and the Igbo, the Yoruba have also produced the president. The Igbo have yet to produce a president for Nigeria.
Even the most cursory look would confirm that the relationship of the Igbo with their fatherland is fraught. Though the Igbo have occupied virtually all the positions in the polity from the vice presidency down, they feel excluded, elbowed aside, and complain incessantly of marginalisation, of being short-changed. The reason for the Igbo sense of exclusion is the presidency. The Igbo feel that true integration or reintegration after the civil war would mean having an Igbo man in the highest office in the land. I don’t think there would be any dissent to that reasoning.
Now, here is the danger in the Obi’s one-term presidency. If it happens it will perpetuate the Igbo man’s sense of being treated differently. And he will be right. But that different treatment would be an own goal. It would be by the design of one of their own, Peter Obi.
Life is often by comparison. The Igbo would wonder why others did eight years, while the Igbo turn was limited to four years. And the danger is that the nation would lug it away that the Igbo have had their turn, and that they should wait till whenever their turn would come again. This is why some Igbo leaders like Governor Soludo and Kenneth Okonkwo are criticising Obi for what they see as a hare-brained self-denial. Soludo even describes as psychotic Obi’s imagination of a four-year presidency where the Constitution allows eight years. I think the outrage can be further explained.
This is a Catch-22. If Obi wins and reneges on his four-year promise, he will exacerbate the abiding trust baggage for Ndigbo. Let’s face it. There is a residual trust tangle for Ndigbo—it may not be proclaimed from the rooftop—but it’s there, now given a new life by a self-infliction called IPOB. Obi’s failure to keep his inexplicable promise of a four-year presidency would make things indescribably difficult for Nigbo. It would worsen the trust deficit. Head or tail, they would be losers.
The four-year plan does not even bathe Obi in a halo of light. Look at it however you may, it speaks of desperation. It’s a poignant metaphor for selfishness. It indicates that Obi is ready to throw Nigbo under the bus if that makes him to sit in the Villa even for one day.
And as I said in an earlier intervention a few days ago, the four-year plan stretches credulity and thus reminds many of Obi’s track record of broken promises.
It also brings to the conscious mind the Wogu-in-wonderland side of Peter Obi. It reminds people that this man once said he was getting advice from a mad man. It brings to memory that this man once said he didn’t know he should declare assets he “jointly” owns with his family.
This is the side of Obi that is weird, that advertises him poorly, very poorly as unsuited for the serious business of running a country.
Obi, who has so far projected himself as a desperate wannabe, had better say his real mind now or risk the nationwide conclusion that he is on stunt or he is out to con.
But there is no indication Obi will change course and leave the improbable single term tenure behind as a damaging slip. His latest party, the Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC), is promoting the four-year plan as part of its platform.
Honestly, strange things are happening. Of all there is for a party to promise a nation, the NDC is running on a four-year presidency as its platform. What does that say about a party that wants to wrest power from the ruling party? Don’t they come across as a group that is bereft of ideas? They can’t even think!
Who will be tickled by the four-year promise? The answer is those who are waiting to throw in the hat in the ring in 2031. That is northern politicians.
This is where it gets super interesting. Who would the north rather trust—the incumbent who is constitutionally compelled to yield back power in the next four years (and going by the consensually rotational principle, this means power going back to the north), or a fellow with a history of failed promises who the same Constitution allows to rule for eight years if he wins re-election? As Soludo has already advised, no one should imagine that others are fools. But I’m wondering who is fooling around here.
I hope it is not only the north that will see through to the danger of Obi’s promise. I pray Ndigbo sees it as well.
Iboro Otongaran
A communication Artist, lives in Abuja.
