BARRING any further postponements, the National Population Commission (NPC) will commence the enumeration of Nigerians across the country on May 3, 2023. The three-day exercise is billed to be Nigeria’s first Digital and Green Census expected to be accurate, reliable, and user-friendly for development planning and critical programme interventions for all segments of the Nigerian society.
Although the exercise is planned to capture every Nigerian, household and structure for national planning and project execution purposes, information about its real nature and execution is very scanty in the public space. Talks about the planned headcount started filtering out more than five years ago, but public enlightenment about the actual implementation only came into public consciousness just as the nation was preparing for the 2023 general elections.
The election issue subdued the census plan and even affected its scheduled execution. The census exercise was initially planned for March 29; it was shifted to April 2 and eventually to May 3, because the governorship and state house of assembly elections had to be rescheduled from March 11 to March 18 owing to the fallouts of the Presidential and National Assembly elections held earlier on March 25.
The last time the country had a semblance of a physical head count was in 2006, about 17 years ago; but this is an exercise that should be more regular given its importance in development planning. It provides database for comparisons and projections of demographic data as well as social and economic characteristics of the country. The significance of a national census can therefore not be over-emphasised given its fundamental role in development, planning, security, infrastructure development, educational, health and other demographic considerations.
As relevant as the exercise is, there are certain fundamental questions that should guide its execution: Do we need a census at this point of our national life? Is the current mood and environment in the country conducive for the conduct of a reliable all inclusive census exercise? Is the timing right, given that it is coming about a month to the end of the sitting government? Is the NPC strong enough to handle the exercise given the experiences of such national institutions in the recent past? But assuming the NPC is ready, the current mood of the nation after the contentious 2023 general elections does not look too good for the conduct of an all-inclusive exercise that requires confidence in national institutions and mass participation of the people.
Given the issues raised above, we are compelled to suggest that the census exercise be postponed, to allow for the right frame of mind for the citizens to freely participate in the exercise and also enough time for the NPC to carry out a through, reliable and credible exercise that would effectively serve the purpose. The current administration, which tenure expires next month, should just concentrate on dealing with the fallouts of the last general elections and conclude the transition programme. It should allow the new administration to come in, settle down and tackle the census exercise properly. Conducting a census project just a month to the end of the administration does not make much sense and not likely to be seen as credible.
In our editorial of April 25, 2022, Waiting for Nigeria’s next census, when the issue of a national head count was again brought into public consciousness, we had cautioned that as desirable as an accurate population census in governance and development planning is in today’s Nigeria, the NPC must beware of the negative tendencies that have always undermined the development trajectory of the country. We advised that it must be prepared for the challenges that would most likely confront it in the build-up and actual execution of the exercise. The issues we enumerated included the now ingrained regional/ethnic and religious bigotry, the security challenges, the outpouring of petty sentiments, the destructive dispositions of anti-growth elements, the rabid critics of every initiative and proposal from public institutions and governments, and saboteurs within the system.
It is pertinent to point out that these tendencies are not new, they are ever present; but they must not continue to define who we are or constitute reasons for failure to successfully carry out any national project. All necessary plans must be strategically situated to surmount them. Which is why we are of the opinion that the level of preparation, the mood of the country following a contentious general election and coming at the tail end of the out-going administration are not good enough signals to deliver a reliable and generally acceptable outcome.
Rather than rush the exercise, the outgoing administration should concentrate its attention on the transition programme. It can prepare the grounds, but should allow the new administration to handle the execution of physical exercise. The NPC still has a lot to do for the project to be successful. There does not seem to be much of public sensitization and robust training of personnel for the exercise. Apart from probably some urban centres, knowledge of the impending exercise is lacking across the country. The NPC recently announced the postponement of an already scheduled training programme for those billed to handle the exercise.
Also, going by the conflicting signals emanating from the Commission recently, there are fears that even within the NPC certain categories of its officials are not conversant with the very type of census exercise being planned and the details of execution. The NPC should first of all put its house in order, then proceed with robust sensitisation and stakeholder outreach programmes to prepare the ground for the task ahead. The people must be carried along every step of the way to avoid the characteristic complain of lack of proper enlightenment.
In spite of NPC’s assurance that it has demarcated every land space in the country, including IDP camps, into Enumeration Areas (EAs), and that every person in the EAs would be counted during the period of the exercise, there are concerns still that those living in the troubled areas, particularly the terrorists and bandits’ infested enclaves may be excluded in the head-count because enumerators may not have easy access to them considering the security implications.
If the exercise fails because of lack of proper planning and engagement of the relevant stakeholders, it would be one failure too many for the outgoing administration after bungling a similar necessary but ill-timed and terribly executed currency redesign project and a general election that has become very contentious; all in the last six months of the current administration. A back to back failure of three very critical national institutions will cast the country in a most terrible light on the global stage; and the Buhari administration will not be leaving smelling roses.
